The Electoral Commission has confirmed the 11 candidates who will run in the upcoming by-election for the vacant Northland seat. In the 2014 election, the seat was won by National MP Mike Sabin. However, after rumours of a police investigation surrounding him came to light, Sabin stepped down. The cause of the police investigation is currently unknown.
Of the major parties, Mark Osborne for National and Willow-Jean Prime for Labour are set to run. Other candidates will be Robin Grieve of ACT, Reuben Taipari Porter of Mana, Maki Herbert from ALCP and Rom Painting from the Climate Party. From Focus New Zealand will be Joe Carr, and from the Independent Party will be Adrian Paul, Adam Holland and Bruce Rogan. The most unexpected candidate, however, is New Zealand First MP Winston Peters.
Peters has been known as a scavenger of opportunity. In 2005, he became New Zealand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. In 2014, political commentators speculated that he would become the “king-maker” of the election, though this never came to fruition. He has been known for not forming long-standing alliances to allow him flexibility and a continued outspoken criticism of all.
His bid for the Northland seat is exactly this. If he wins, National will have difficulty pushing legislation through the House.
The by-election has created an opportunity for the left to somewhat “balance the scales.” Labour has been criticised for not allowing Peters to contend for the seat alone in order to improve the chances of National losing the seat. Many commentators have highlighted that this decision lessens Peter’s chance of winning the seat.
Before Sabin’s departure, National had 60 seats in Parliament. If they fail to retain the Northland electorate, they will only have 59, meaning they would require cooperation from both United Future and the Maori Party to pass items through Parliament. Considering the difficulty National has had whipping up coalition support for the troop deployment in Iraq, losing the Northland seat would be a major blow to the Key government.
Advanced voting for the by-election is set to begin on 11 March, with the official election day being held on 28 March.
Peters Flies North... Or Crawls
