David Seymour
After a strong 2015, David Seymour has almost certainly secured his personal future as MP for Epsom. 2016 posits a far greater challenge: Saving his party. After 7 years of relatively centrist government, there should be a market for a true Libertarian party among hard right-wing voters dissatisfied with the Labour-lite style of the Key government. Rejecting a cabinet position gives Seymour room to distance himself from National, and should the government allow a conscience vote on his Euthanasia Bill, he has a chance to front a major legislative win and bring the ACT party back from the brink.
Andrew Little
After winning the Labour Leadership, Little always said he would spend the first year of his tenure focusing on rebuilding the party internally. That time is up. Now, he needs to turn his view outwards and prove that he can connect with voters. While he is unlikely to out-joke and out-selfie John Key, expect a couple of major policy proposals, a bunch of articles in Women’s Weekly, and a big push to promote his story of cancer survival.
Marama Fox
The Maori Party has always insisted that they will sign confidence and supply agreements with the government of the day, in order to “have a seat at the table”. While that is an idealistic stance, their closeness with National has clearly hurt them dearly at the ballot box, losing all but one of the Maori electorates in 2014. With the massive uproar surrounding the TPP, and John Key’s decision to avoid Waitangi, the Maori Party may need to seriously distance themselves from National in order to stay alive. Female co-leader Marama Fox is more tapped into the grassroots than her male counterpart, so any major moves are likely to come through her.
Judith Collins
Crusher Collins used her temporary exile from cabinet to increase her public profile with newspaper columns and constant appearances on Paul Henry. Her new position as Minister for Corrections limits her ability to make media appearances, but it gives her an opportunity to get back to her hard-hitting, no-nonsense approach on criminal offending, throwing juicy red meat to the National Party base. When Key steps down, Collins will be hoping to recapture the conservative wing of the caucus and ride it to leadership.